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Power plant operators increasingly rely on predictive models to diagnose and monitor their systems. Data-driven prediction models are generally simple and can have high precision, making them superior to physics-based or knowledge-based models, especially for complex systems like thermal power plants. However, the accuracy of data-driven predictions depends on (1) the quality of the dataset, (2) a suitable selection of sensor signals, and (3) an appropriate selection of the training period. In some instances, redundancies and irrelevant sensors may even reduce the prediction quality.
We investigate ideal configurations for predicting the live steam production of a solid fuel-burning thermal power plant in the pulp and paper industry for different modes of operation. To this end, we benchmark four machine learning algorithms on two feature sets and two training sets to predict steam production. Our results indicate that with the best possible configuration, a coefficient of determination of R^2 = 0.95 and a mean absolute error of MAE=1.2 t/h with an average steam production of 35.1 t/h is reached. On average, using a dynamic dataset for training lowers MAE by 32% compared to a static dataset for training. A feature set based on expert knowledge lowers MAE by an additional 32 %, compared to a simple feature set representing the fuel inputs. We can conclude that based on the static training set and the basic feature set, machine learning algorithms can identify long-term changes. When using a dynamic dataset the performance parameters of thermal power plants are predicted with high accuracy and allow for detecting short-term problems.
Alleviating the curse of dimensionality in minkowski sum approximations of storage flexibility
(2023)
Many real-world applications require the joint optimization of a large number of flexible devices over some time horizon. The flexibility of multiple batteries, thermostatically controlled loads, or electric vehicles, e.g., can be used to support grid operations and to reduce operation costs. Using piecewise constant power values, the flexibility of each device over d time periods can be described as a polytopic subset in power space. The aggregated flexibility is given by the Minkowski sum of these polytopes. As the computation of Minkowski sums is in general demanding, several approximations have been proposed in the literature. Yet, their application potential is often objective-dependent and limited by the curse of dimensionality. In this paper, we show that up to 2d vertices of each polytope can be computed efficiently and that the convex hull of their sums provides a computationally efficient inner approximation of the Minkowski sum. Via an extensive simulation study, we illustrate that our approach outperforms ten state-of-the-art inner approximations in terms of computational complexity and accuracy for different objectives. Moreover, we propose an efficient disaggregation method applicable to any vertex-based approximation. The proposed methods provide an efficient means to aggregate and to disaggregate typical battery storages in quarter-hourly periods over an entire day with reasonable accuracy for aggregated cost and for peak power optimization.
Flexibility estimation is the first step necessary to incorporate building energy systems into demand side management programs. We extend a known method for temporal flexibility estimation from literature to a real-world residential heat pump system, solely based on historical cloud data. The method proposed relies on robust simplifications and estimates employing process knowledge, energy balances and manufacturer's information. Resulting forced and delayed temporal flexibility, covering both domestic hot water and space heating demands as constraints, allows to derive a flexibility range for the heat pump system. The resulting temporal flexibility lay within the range of 24 minutes and 6 hours for forced and delayed flexibility, respectively. This range provides new insights into the system's behaviour and is the basis for estimating power and energy flexibility - the first step necessary to incorporate building energy systems into demand side management programs.
Hot water heat pumps are well suited for demand side management, as the heat pump market faced a rapid growth in the past years with the trend to decentralized domestic hot water use. Sales were accelerated through wants and needs of energy conservation, energy efficiency, and less restrictive rules regarding Legionella. While in literature the model predictive control potential for heat pumps is commonly shown in simulations, the share of experimental studies is relatively low. To this day, experimental studies considering solely domestic hot water use are not available. In this paper, the realistic achievable model predictive control potential of a hot water heat pump is compared to the standard hysteresis control, to provide an experimental proof. We show for the first time, how state-of-the-art approaches (model predictive control, system identification, live state estimation, and demand prediction) can be transferred from electric hot water heaters to hot water heat pumps, combined, and implemented into a real-world hot water heat pump setup. The optimization approach, embedded in a realistic experimental setting, leads to a decrease in electric energy demand and cost per unit electricity by approximately 12% and 14%, respectively. Further, an increase in efficiency by approximately 13% has been achieved.
Vast amounts of oily wastewater are byproducts of the petrochemical and the shipping industry and to this day frequently discharged into water bodies either without or after insufficient treatment. To alleviate the resulting pollution, water treatment processes are in great demand. Bubble column humidifiers (BCHs) as part of humidification–dehumidification systems are predestined for such a task, since they are insensitive to different feed liquids, simple in design and have low maintenance requirements. While humidification in a bubble column has been investigated plentiful for desalination, a systematic investigation of oily wastewater treatment is missing in literature. We filled this gap by analyzing the treatment of an oil–water emulsion experimentally to derive recommendations for future design and operation of BCHs. Our humidity measurements indicate that the air stream is always saturated after humidification for a liquid height of only 10 cm. A residual water mass fraction of 3.5 wt% is measured after a batch run of six hours. Furthermore, continuous measurements show that an increase in oil mass fraction leads to a decrease in system productivity especially for high oil mass fractions. This decrease is caused by the heterogeneity of the liquid temperature profile. A lower liquid height mitigates this heterogeneity, therefore decreasing the heat demand and improving the overall efficiency. The oil content of the produced condensate is below 15 ppm, allowing discharge into various water bodies. The results of our systematic investigation prove suitability and indicate a strong future potential for the use of BCHs in oily wastewater treatment.
Industrial demand side management has shown significant potential to increase the efficiency of industrial energy systems via flexibility management by model-driven optimization methods. We propose a grey-box model of an industrial food processing plant. The model relies on physical and process knowledge and mass and energy balances. The model parameters are estimated using a predictive error method. Optimization methods are applied to separately reduce the total energy consumption, total energy costs and the peak electricity demand of the plant. A viable potential for demand side management in the plant is identified by increasing the energy efficiency, shifting cooling power to low price periods or by peak load reduction.
Bubble column humidifiers (BCHs) are frequently used for the humidification of air in various water treatment applications. A potential but not yet profoundly investigated application of such devices is the treatment of oily wastewater. To evaluate this application, the accumulation of an oil-water emulsion using a BCH is experimentally analyzed. The amount of evaporating water vapor can be evaluated by measuring the humidity ratio of the outlet air. However, humidity measurements are difficult in close to saturated conditions, as the formation of liquid droplets on the sensor impacts the measurement accuracy. We use a heating section after the humidifier, such that no liquid droplets are formed on the sensor. This enables us a more accurate humidity measurement. Two batch measurement runs are conducted with (1) tap water and (2) an oil-water emulsion as the respective liquid phase. The humidity measurement in high humidity conditions is highly accurate with an error margin of below 3 % and can be used to predict the oil concentration of the remaining liquid during operation. The measured humidity ratio corresponds with the removed amount of water vapor for both tap water and the accumulation of an oil-water emulsion. Our measurements show that the residual water content
in the oil-water emulsion is below 4 %.
Increasing electric vehicle penetration leads to undesirable peaks in power if no proper coordination in charging is implemented. We tested the feasibility of electric vehicles acting as flexible demands responding to power signals to minimize the system peaks. The proposed hierarchical autonomous demand side management algorithm is formulated as an optimal power tracking problem. The distribution grid operator determines a power signal for filling the valleys in the non-electric vehicle load profile using the electric vehicle demand flexibility and sends it to all electric vehicle controllers. After receiving the control signal, each electric vehicle controller re-scales it to the expected individual electric vehicle energy demand and determines the optimal charging schedule to track the re-scaled signal. No information concerning the electric vehicles are reported back to the utility, hence the approach can be implemented using unidirectional communication with reduced infrastructural requirements. The achieved results show that the optimal power tracking approach has the potential to eliminate additional peak demands induced by electric vehicle charging and performs comparably to its central implementation. The reduced complexity and computational overhead permits also convenient deployment in practice.
Traditional power grids are mainly based on centralized power generation and subsequent distribution. The increasing penetration of distributed renewable energy sources and the growing number of electrical loads is creating difficulties in balancing supply and demand and threatens the secure and efficient operation of power grids. At the same time, households hold an increasing amount of flexibility, which can be exploited by demand-side management to decrease customer cost and support grid operation. Compared to the collection of individual flexibilities, aggregation reduces optimization complexity, protects households’ privacy, and lowers the communication effort. In mathematical terms, each flexibility is modeled by a set of power profiles, and the aggregated flexibility is modeled by the Minkowski sum of individual flexibilities. As the exact Minkowski sum calculation is generally computationally prohibitive, various approximations can be found in the literature. The main contribution of this paper is a comparative evaluation of several approximation algorithms in terms of novel quality criteria, computational complexity, and communication effort using realistic data. Furthermore, we investigate the dependence of selected comparison criteria on the time horizon length and on the number of households. Our results indicate that none of the algorithms perform satisfactorily in all categories. Hence, we provide guidelines on the application-dependent algorithm choice. Moreover, we demonstrate a major drawback of some inner approximations, namely that they may lead to situations in which not using the flexibility is impossible, which may be suboptimal in certain situations.
Bubble columns are recently used for the humidification of air in water treatment systems and fuel cells. They are well applicable due to their excellent heat and mass transfer and their low technical complexity. To design and operate such devices with high efficiency, the humidification process and the impact of the operating parameters need to be understood to a sufficient degree. To extend this knowledge, we use a refined and novel method to determine the volumetric air–liquid heat and mass transfer coefficients and the humidifier efficiency for various parametric settings. The volumetric transfer coefficients increase with both of the superficial air velocity and the liquid temperature. It is further shown that the decrease of vapor pressure with an increase of the salinity results in a corresponding decrease in the outlet humidity ratio. In contrast to previous studies, liquid heights smaller than 0.1 m are investigated and significant changes in the humidifier efficiency are seen in this range. We present the expected humidifier efficiency with respect to the superficial air velocity and the liquid height in an efficiency chart, such that optimal operating conditions can be determined. Based on this efficiency chart, recommendations for industrial applications as well as future scientific challenges are drawn.
The electricity demand due to the increasing number of EVs presents new challenges for the operation of the electricity network, especially for the distribution grids. The existing grid infrastructure may not be sufficient to meet the new demands imposed by the integration of EVs. Thus, EV charging may possibly lead to reliability and stability issues, especially during the peak demand periods. Demand side management (DSM) is a potential and promising approach for mitigation of the resulting impacts. In this work, we developed an autonomous DSM strategy for optimal charging of EVs to minimize the charging cost and we conducted a simulation study to evaluate the impacts to the grid operation. The proposed approach only requires a one way communicated incentive. Real profiles from an Austrian study on mobility behavior are used to simulate the usage of the EVs. Furthermore, real smart meter data are used to simulate the household base load profiles and a real low voltage grid topology is considered in the load flow simulation. Day-ahead electricity stock market prices are used as the incentive to drive the optimization. The results for the optimum charging strategy is determined and compared to uncontrolled EV charging. The results for the optimum charging strategy show a potential cost saving of about 30.8% compared to uncontrolled EV charging. Although autonomous DSM of EVs achieves a shift of load as pursued, distribution grid operation may be substantially affected by it. We show that in the case of real time price driven operation, voltage drops and elevated peak to average powers result from the coincident charging of vehicles during favourable time slots.
In the regime of incentive-based autonomous demand response, time dependent prices are typically used to serve as signals from a system operator to consumers. However, this approach has been shown to be problematic from various perspectives. We clarify these shortcomings in a geometric way and thereby motivate the use of power signals instead of price signals. The main contribution of this paper consists of demonstrating in a standard setting that power tracking signals can control flexibilities more efficiently than real-time price signals. For comparison by simulation, German renewable energy production and German standard load profiles are used for daily production and demand profiles, respectively. As for flexibility, an energy storage system with realistic efficiencies is considered. Most critically, the new approach is able to induce consumptions on the demand side that real-time pricing is unable to induce. Moreover, the pricing approach is outperformed with regards to imbalance energy, peak consumption, storage variation, and storage losses without the need for additional communication or computation efforts. It is further shown that the advantages of the optimal power tracking approach compared to the pricing approach increase with the extent of the flexibility. The results indicate that autonomous flexibility control by optimal power tracking is able to integrate renewable energy production efficiently, has additional benefits, and the potential for enhancements. The latter include data uncertainties, systems of flexibilities, and economic implementation.
The humidification-dehumidification process (HDH) for desalination is a promising technology to address water scarcity issues in rural regions. However, a low humidifier efficiency is a weakness of the process. Bubble column humidifiers (BCH) are promising for HDH, as they provide enhanced heat and mass transfer and have low maintenance requirements. Previous studies of HDH-systems with BCHs draw different conclusions regarding the impact of superficial air velocity and liquid height on the humidification. Furthermore, the impact of flow characteristics has never been investigated systematically at all. In this study, an optimized BCH test setup that allows for optical analysis of the humidifier is used and evaluated. Our test setup is validated, since the influence of water temperature on the humidification, which is exponential, is reproduced. Measurements with seawater show that the normalised system productivity is increased by about 56 % with an increase in superficial air velocity from 0.5 to 5 cm/s. Furthermore, the system productivity is increased by around 29 % with an increase in liquid height from 60 to 378 mm. While the impact of superficial air velocity can be traced back to temperature changes at the humidifier and dehumidifier outlets, the impact of liquid height is shown to be caused by a smaller heat loss surface in the humidifier with an increase in liquid height. For the impact of sieve plate orifice diameter, a clear influence on the humidification is not apparent, this parameter needs to be investigated further. Finally, our new test setup allows for analysing the humidification of air (1) in a systematic way, (2) in relevant measurement ranges and (3) in comparison with optical analyses of the flow characteristics.
In contrast to fossil energy sources, the supply by renewable energy sources likewind and photovoltaics can not be controlled. Therefore, flexibilities on the demandside of the electric power grid, like electro-chemical energy storage systems, are usedincreasingly to match electric supply and demand at all times. To control those flex-ibilities, we consider two algorithms that both lead to linear programming problems.These are solved autonomously on the demand side, i.e., by household computers.In the classic approach, an energy price signal is sent by the electric utility to thehouseholds, which, in turn, optimize the cost of consumption within their constraints.Instead of an energy price signal, we claim that an appropriate power signal that istracked in L1-norm as close as possible by the household has favorable character-istics. We argue that an interior point of the household’s feasibility region is neveran optimal price-based point but can result in a L1-norm optimal point. Thus, pricesignals can not parametrize the complete feasibility region which may not lead to anoptimal allocation of consumption.We compare the price and power tracking algorithms over a year on the base ofone-day optimizations regarding different information settings and using a large dataset of daily household load profiles. The computational task constitutes an embarrassingly parallel problem. To this end, the performance of the two parallel computation frameworks DEF [1] and Ray [2] are investigated. The Ray framework is used to run the Python applications locally on several cores. With the DEF frameworkwe execute our Python routines parallelly in a cloud. All in all, the results providean understanding of when which computation framework and autonomous algorithmwill outperform the other.
Verbraucherseitige Laststeuerung (Demand Side Management – DSM) wird als ein möglicher Ansatz betrachtet, um die Auswirkungen des Ausbaus von fluktuierenden Erneuerbaren im Stromnetz auszugleichen. Sollen viele verteilte Energiesysteme damit angesprochen werden, stellen zentralistische Ansätze dabei hohe Anforderungen an die Kommunikationsinfrastruktur. Als Alternative wird vielfach eine autonome Laststeuerung (ADSM) mit anreizbasierter Optimierung direkt auf dem Verbrauchergerät betrachtet. Dabei kann die Anreizfunktion mittels unidirektionaler Kommunikation übertragen werden.
Am Forschungszentrum Energie der Fachhochschule Vorarlberg wurden in den letzten Jahren Algorithmen und Prototypen für den Einsatz von ADSM auf verschiedensten verteilten Energiespeichern im elektrischen Stromnetz entwickelt. Dabei werden sowohl thermische Energiespeicher (z. B. Haushalts-Warmwasserspeicher) als auch elektrochemische Speicher (z. B. Batteriespeichersysteme oder Elektroautos) betrachtet. Außerdem werden die Auswirkungen solcher Systeme auf das elektrische Verteilnetz untersucht. Dieser Artikel gibt einen Überblick über die entwickelten Methoden und Ergebnisse aus diesem Forschungsfeld mit dem Ziel, ein weitreichendes Verständnis für die Chancen und Grenzen des ADSM zu schaffen.