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Power plant operators increasingly rely on predictive models to diagnose and monitor their systems. Data-driven prediction models are generally simple and can have high precision, making them superior to physics-based or knowledge-based models, especially for complex systems like thermal power plants. However, the accuracy of data-driven predictions depends on (1) the quality of the dataset, (2) a suitable selection of sensor signals, and (3) an appropriate selection of the training period. In some instances, redundancies and irrelevant sensors may even reduce the prediction quality.
We investigate ideal configurations for predicting the live steam production of a solid fuel-burning thermal power plant in the pulp and paper industry for different modes of operation. To this end, we benchmark four machine learning algorithms on two feature sets and two training sets to predict steam production. Our results indicate that with the best possible configuration, a coefficient of determination of R^2 = 0.95 and a mean absolute error of MAE=1.2 t/h with an average steam production of 35.1 t/h is reached. On average, using a dynamic dataset for training lowers MAE by 32% compared to a static dataset for training. A feature set based on expert knowledge lowers MAE by an additional 32 %, compared to a simple feature set representing the fuel inputs. We can conclude that based on the static training set and the basic feature set, machine learning algorithms can identify long-term changes. When using a dynamic dataset the performance parameters of thermal power plants are predicted with high accuracy and allow for detecting short-term problems.
Grey Box models provide an important approach for control analysis in the Heating, Ventilation and Air Conditioning (HVAC) sector. Grey Box models consist of physical models where parameters are estimated from data. Due to the vast amount of component models that can be found in literature, the question arises, which component models perform best on a given system or dataset? This question is investigated systematically using a test case system with real operational data. The test case system consists of a HVAC system containing an energy recovery unit (ER), a heating coil (HC) and a cooling coil (CC). For each component, several suitable model variants from the literature are adapted appropriately and implemented. Four model variants are implemented for the ER and five model variants each for the HC and CC. Further, three global optimization algorithms and four local optimization algorithms to solve the nonlinear least squares system identification are implemented, leading to a total of 700 combinations. The comparison of all variants shows that the global optimization algorithms do not provide significantly better solutions. Their runtimes are significantly higher. Analysis of the models shows a dependency of the model accuracy on the number of total parameters.
Alleviating the curse of dimensionality in minkowski sum approximations of storage flexibility
(2023)
Many real-world applications require the joint optimization of a large number of flexible devices over some time horizon. The flexibility of multiple batteries, thermostatically controlled loads, or electric vehicles, e.g., can be used to support grid operations and to reduce operation costs. Using piecewise constant power values, the flexibility of each device over d time periods can be described as a polytopic subset in power space. The aggregated flexibility is given by the Minkowski sum of these polytopes. As the computation of Minkowski sums is in general demanding, several approximations have been proposed in the literature. Yet, their application potential is often objective-dependent and limited by the curse of dimensionality. In this paper, we show that up to 2d vertices of each polytope can be computed efficiently and that the convex hull of their sums provides a computationally efficient inner approximation of the Minkowski sum. Via an extensive simulation study, we illustrate that our approach outperforms ten state-of-the-art inner approximations in terms of computational complexity and accuracy for different objectives. Moreover, we propose an efficient disaggregation method applicable to any vertex-based approximation. The proposed methods provide an efficient means to aggregate and to disaggregate typical battery storages in quarter-hourly periods over an entire day with reasonable accuracy for aggregated cost and for peak power optimization.
Activation of heat pump flexibilities is a viable solution to support balancing the grid via Demand Side Management measures and fulfill the need for flexibility options. Aggregators as interface between prosumers, distribution system operators and balance responsible parties face the challenge due to data privacy and technical restrictions to transform prosumer information into aggregated available flexibility to enable trading thereof. Thereby, literature lacks a generic, applicable and widely accepted flexibility estimation method for heat pumps,which incorporates reduced sensor and system information, system- and demand-dependent behaviour. In this paper, we adapt and extend a method from literature, by incorporating domain knowledge to overcome reduced sensor and system information. We apply data of five real-world heat pump systems, distinguish operation modes, estimate power and energy flexibility of each single heat pump system, proof transferability of the method, and aggregate the flexibilities available to showcase a small HP pool as a proof of concept.
Flexibility estimation is the first step necessary to incorporate building energy systems into demand side management programs. We extend a known method for temporal flexibility estimation from literature to a real-world residential heat pump system, solely based on historical cloud data. The method proposed relies on robust simplifications and estimates employing process knowledge, energy balances and manufacturer's information. Resulting forced and delayed temporal flexibility, covering both domestic hot water and space heating demands as constraints, allows to derive a flexibility range for the heat pump system. The resulting temporal flexibility lay within the range of 24 minutes and 6 hours for forced and delayed flexibility, respectively. This range provides new insights into the system's behaviour and is the basis for estimating power and energy flexibility - the first step necessary to incorporate building energy systems into demand side management programs.
Vast amounts of oily wastewater are byproducts of the petrochemical and the shipping industry and to this day frequently discharged into water bodies either without or after insufficient treatment. To alleviate the resulting pollution, water treatment processes are in great demand. Bubble column humidifiers (BCHs) as part of humidification–dehumidification systems are predestined for such a task, since they are insensitive to different feed liquids, simple in design and have low maintenance requirements. While humidification in a bubble column has been investigated plentiful for desalination, a systematic investigation of oily wastewater treatment is missing in literature. We filled this gap by analyzing the treatment of an oil–water emulsion experimentally to derive recommendations for future design and operation of BCHs. Our humidity measurements indicate that the air stream is always saturated after humidification for a liquid height of only 10 cm. A residual water mass fraction of 3.5 wt% is measured after a batch run of six hours. Furthermore, continuous measurements show that an increase in oil mass fraction leads to a decrease in system productivity especially for high oil mass fractions. This decrease is caused by the heterogeneity of the liquid temperature profile. A lower liquid height mitigates this heterogeneity, therefore decreasing the heat demand and improving the overall efficiency. The oil content of the produced condensate is below 15 ppm, allowing discharge into various water bodies. The results of our systematic investigation prove suitability and indicate a strong future potential for the use of BCHs in oily wastewater treatment.
Industrial demand side management has shown significant potential to increase the efficiency of industrial energy systems via flexibility management by model-driven optimization methods. We propose a grey-box model of an industrial food processing plant. The model relies on physical and process knowledge and mass and energy balances. The model parameters are estimated using a predictive error method. Optimization methods are applied to separately reduce the total energy consumption, total energy costs and the peak electricity demand of the plant. A viable potential for demand side management in the plant is identified by increasing the energy efficiency, shifting cooling power to low price periods or by peak load reduction.
Bubble column humidifiers (BCHs) are frequently used for the humidification of air in various water treatment applications. A potential but not yet profoundly investigated application of such devices is the treatment of oily wastewater. To evaluate this application, the accumulation of an oil-water emulsion using a BCH is experimentally analyzed. The amount of evaporating water vapor can be evaluated by measuring the humidity ratio of the outlet air. However, humidity measurements are difficult in close to saturated conditions, as the formation of liquid droplets on the sensor impacts the measurement accuracy. We use a heating section after the humidifier, such that no liquid droplets are formed on the sensor. This enables us a more accurate humidity measurement. Two batch measurement runs are conducted with (1) tap water and (2) an oil-water emulsion as the respective liquid phase. The humidity measurement in high humidity conditions is highly accurate with an error margin of below 3 % and can be used to predict the oil concentration of the remaining liquid during operation. The measured humidity ratio corresponds with the removed amount of water vapor for both tap water and the accumulation of an oil-water emulsion. Our measurements show that the residual water content
in the oil-water emulsion is below 4 %.
Grid-scale electrical energy storage (EES) is a key component in cost-effective transition scenarios to renewable energy sources. The requirement of scalability favors EES approaches such as pumped-storage hydroelectricity (PSH) or compressed-air energy storage (CAES), which utilize the cheap and abundant storage materials water and air, respectively. To overcome the site restriction and low volumetric energy densities attributed to PSH and CAES, liquid-air energy storage (LAES) has been devised; however, it suffers from a rather small round-trip efficiency (RTE) and challenging storage conditions. Aiming to overcome these drawbacks, a novel system for EES is developed using solidified air (i.e., clathrate hydrate of air) as the storable phase of air. A reference plant for solidified-air energy storage (SAES) is conceptualized and modeled thermodynamically using the software CoolProp for water and air as well as empirical data and first-order approximations for the solidified air (SA). The reference plant exhibits a RTE of 52% and a volumetric storage density of 47 kWh per m3 of SA. While this energy density relates to only one half of that in LAES plants, the modeled RTE of SAES is comparable already. Since improved thermal management and the use of thermodynamic promoters can further increase the RTEs in SAES, the technical potential of SAES is in place already. Yet, for a successful implementation of the concept - in addition to economic aspects - questions regarding the stability of SA must be first clarified and challenges related to the processing of SA resolved.
The impact of global warming and climate change has forced countries to introduce strict policies and decarbonization goals toward sustainable development. To achieve the decarbonization of the economy, a substantial increase of renewable energy sources is required to meed energy demand and to transition away from fossil fuels. However, renewables are sensitive to environmental conditions, which may lead to imbalances between energy supply and demand. Battery energy storage systems are gaining more attention for balancing energy systems in existing grid networks at various levels such as bulk power management, transmission and distribution, and for end-users. Integrating battery energy storage systems with renewables can also solve reliability issues related to transient energy production and be used as a buffer source for electrical vehicle fast charging. Despite these advantages, batteries are still expensive and typically built for a single application – either for an energy- or power-dense application – which limits economic feasibility and flexibility. This paper presents a theoretical approach of a hybrid energy storage system that utilizes both energy- and power-dense batteries serving multiple grid applications. The proposed system will employ second use electrical vehicle batteries in order to maximise the potential of battery waste. The approach is based on a survey of battery modelling techniques and control methods. It was found that equivalent circuit models as well as unified control methods are best suited for modelling hybrid energy storages for grid applications. This approach for hybrid modelling is intended to help accelerate the renewable energy transition by providing reliable energy storage.