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Towards a strategic management framework for engineering of organizational robustness and resilience
(2020)
For a given set of banks, how big can losses in bad economic or financial scenarios possibly get, and what are these bad scenarios? These are the two central questions of stress tests for banks and the banking system. Current stress tests select stress scenarios in a way which might leave aside many dangerous scenarios and thus create an illusion of safety; and which might consider highly implausible scenarios and thus trigger a false alarm. We show how to select scenarios systematically for a banking system in a context of multiple credit exposures. We demonstrate the application of our method in an example on the Spanish and Italian residential real estate exposures of European banks. Compared to the EBA 2016 stress test our method produces scenarios which are equally plausible as the EBA stress scenario but yield considerably worse system wide losses.
Blood flow and ventilatory flow strongly influence the concentrations of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) in exhaled breath. The physicochemical properties of a compound (e.g., water solubility) additionally determine if the concentration of the compound in breath reflects the alveolar concentration, the concentration in the upper airways, or a mixture of both. Mathematical modeling based on mass balance equations helps to understand how measured breath concentrations are related to their corresponding blood concentrations and physiological parameters, such as metabolic rates and endogenous production rates. In addition, the influence of inhaled compounds on their exhaled concentrations can be quantified and appropriate correction formulas can be derived. Isoprene and acetone, two endogenous VOCs with very different water solubility, have been modeled to explain the essential features of their behavior in breath. This chapter introduces the theory of physiological modeling of exhaled VOCs, with examples of isoprene and acetone.
Post-operative isoflurane has been observed to be present in the end-tidal breath of patients who have undergone major surgery, for several weeks after the surgical procedures. A major new noncontrolled, non-randomized, and open-label approved study will recruit patients undergoing various surgeries under different inhalation anaesthetics, with two key objectives, namely to record the washout characteristics following surgery, and to investigate the influence of a patient’s health and the duration and type of surgery on elimination. In preparation for this breath study using proton transfer reaction time-of-flight mass spectrometry (PTR-TOF-MS), it is important to identify first the analytical product ions that need to be monitored and under what operating conditions. In this first paper of this new research programme, we present extensive PTR-TOF-MS studies of three major
anaesthetics used worldwide, desflurane (CF3CHFOCHF2), sevoflurane ((CF3)2CHOCH2F), and isoflurane (CF3CHClOCHF2) and a fourth one, which is used less extensively, enflurane (CHF2OCF2CHFCl), but is of interest because it is an isomer of isoflurane. Product ions are identified as a function of reduced electric field (E/N) over the range of approximately 80 Td to 210 Td, and the effects of operating the drift tube under ‘normal’ or ‘humid’ conditions on the intensities of the product ions are presented. To aid in the analyses, density functional theory (DFT) calculations of the proton affinities and the gas-phase basicities of the anaesthetics have been determined. Calculated energies for the ion-molecule reaction pathways leading to key product ions, identified as ideal for monitoring the inhalation anaesthetics in breath with a high sensitivity and selectivity, are also presented.
With the emergence of the recent Industry 4.0 movement, data integration is now also being driven along the production line, made possible primarily by the use of established concepts of intelligent supply chains, such as the digital avatars. Digital avatars – sometimes also called Digital Twins or more broadly Cyber-Physical Systems (CPS) – are already successfully used in holistic systems for intelligent transport ecosystems, similar to the use of Big Data and artificial intelligence technologies interwoven with modern production and supply chains. The goal of this paper is to describe how data from interwoven, autonomous and intelligent supply chains can be integrated into the diverse data ecosystems of the Industry 4.0, influenced by a multitude of data exchange formats and varied data schemas. In this paper, we describe how a framework for supporting SMEs was established in the Lake Constance region and describe a demonstrator sprung from the framework. The demonstrator project’s goal is to exhibit and compare two different approaches towards optimisation of manufacturing lines. The first approach is based upon static optimisation of production demand, i.e. exact or heuristic algorithms are used to plan and optimise the assignment of orders to individual machines. In the second scenario, we use real-time situational awareness – implemented as digital avatar – to assign local intelligence to jobs and raw materials in order to compare the results to the traditional planning methods of scenario one. The results are generated using event-discrete simulation and are compared to common (heuristic) job scheduling algorithms.
Complementarities and synergies of quadruple helix innovation design in smart city development
(2020)
Increased urbanization trends are stimulating regional needs to support transitions from urban environments to smart cities, using its holistic perspective as a source to innovation. Strong relations between smart cities, urban and regional development, are getting increased attention both at policy and implementation level, providing fertile ground for execution of the new European policy frameworks that supports quadruple helix approaches to innovation. Smart specialization strategies (RIS3) encompass such initiatives, placing ICT and collaboration between academia, industry, government, and citizen at the center of urban innovation. However, there is still lack of research on effects of such approaches to innovation, involving both quadruple helix clusters and ICT in utilizing innovation potentials for developing smart cities. This study aims to increase the understanding on how quadruple helix urban innovation strengthens competitiveness of regions by improving its local smart areas – RIS3. We identified smart specialization patterns and applied comparative benchmark between nine smallmedium sized urban regions in Central Europe. Building on these results, the study provides an overview of the effects of RIS3 strategies implemented through quadruple helix innovation clusters on competitiveness of regions and Smart City development.
A modified matrix adaptation evolution strategy with restarts for constrained real-world problems
(2020)
In combination with successful constraint handling techniques, a Matrix Adaptation Evolution Strategy (MA-ES) variant (the εMAg-ES) turned out to be a competitive algorithm on the constrained optimization problems proposed for the CEC 2018 competition on constrained single objective real-parameter optimization. A subsequent analysis points to additional potential in terms of robustness and solution quality. The consideration of a restart scheme and adjustments in the constraint handling techniques put this into effect and simplify the configuration. The resulting BP-εMAg-ES algorithm is applied to the constrained problems proposed for the IEEE CEC 2020 competition on Real-World Single-Objective Constrained optimization. The novel MA-ES variant realizes improvements over the original εMAg-ES in terms of feasibility and effectiveness on many of the real-world benchmarks. The BP-εMAg-ES realizes a feasibility rate of 100% on 44 out of 57 real-world problems and improves the best-known solution in 5 cases.
Real-time measurements of the differences in inhaled and exhaled, unlabeled and fully deuterated acetone concentration levels, at rest and during exercise, have been conducted using proton transfer reaction mass spectrometry. A novel approach to continuously differentiate between the inhaled and exhaled breath acetone concentration signals is used. This leads to unprecedented fine grained data of inhaled and exhaled concentrations. The experimental results obtained are compared with those predicted using a simple three compartment model that theoretically describes the influence of inhaled concentrations on exhaled breath concentrations for volatile organic compounds with high blood:air partition coefficients, and hence is appropriate for acetone. An agreement between the predicted and observed concentrations is obtained. Our results highlight that the influence of the upper airways cannot be neglected for volatiles with high blood:air partition coefficients, i.e. highly water soluble volatiles.