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The formation of mixed gas hydrates for pre- or post-combustion capture of carbon dioxide is considered a promising alternative to conventional carbon capture technologies. Yet, to keep up with conventional technologies or even reduce the cost of capture associated with them, a hydrate-based technology must have (1) a short induction time, (2) fast formation kinetics, and (3) moderate process conditions. To date, these requirements can only be met by adding promoters to the system, which comes at its own cost and disadvantages. Here, we show that the requirements can also be met without promoters by forming mixed gas hydrates in a packed bed of ice stabilized by fumed silica. While the high specific surface area of the packed bed warrants short induction times and fast kinetics, low temperatures ensure both moderate formation pressures and a high CO2 selectivity. The favorable properties can be maintained and even improved upon over many capture/regeneration cycles when operated at temperatures lower than 253 K, as this ensures a continuous formation of pores in the ice. We demonstrate the advantages of this route for carbon capture on a bench scale through batch, semi-batch, and continuous experiments. In semi-batch operation at 233 K and 40 bar, the mole fraction of CO2 in a synthetic flue gas is reduced from 15 mol% to 2.5 mol%. At the same thermodynamic conditions, a split fraction of 70% and a specific energy consumption below 3.0 GJ/tCO2 are achieved in continuous operation. The inherent advantages and simplicity of this process, a specific energy consumption comparable with the state of the art even though entirely based on the bench-scale experiment, as well as environmental harmlessness, emphasize the potential of this hydrate-based process to meet the demands of the industry at a minimal cost of capture.
An interpretable and adaptable data-driven model for performance prediction in thermal plants
(2025)
To safely operate complex industrial systems such as thermal power plants, establishing reliable monitoring tools is paramount for better understanding the underlying processes. Data-driven models are a useful aid for monitoring and control of thermal power plants, but they require an effective feature selection to allow for an accurate, computationally efficient, and interpretable model. In this study, we systematically compared three different modes of feature selection for predicting the live steam flow in a thermal plant: purely expert-based, purely data-driven, and a hybrid combining both. While a fully data-driven approach yields the highest accuracy, a hybrid approach, refined from more than 3000 features, achieves nearly equivalent precision (NMAE = 1.14%) while using only 44 physical sensor signals, significantly improving the computational efficiency and enabling interpretability. The model is dynamically retrained using a sliding window approach to effectively handle load variations and plant shutdowns, which allows for the real-time tracking of deviations from the expected performance. We further validated our approach on a second thermal plant, achieving an NMAE of 2.49% despite substantial operational differences. By balancing predictive accuracy, interpretability, and transferability across plants, this work provides a practical framework for robust, data-driven monitoring and decision support in complex industrial power systems.
A data-driven regression model for predicting thermal plant performance under load fluctuations
(2024)
The global energy demand is still primarily reliant on fossil-fueled thermal power plants. With the growing share of renewables, these plants must frequently adjust their loads. Maintaining, or ideally increasing operational efficiency under these conditions is crucial. Increasing the efficiency of such systems directly reduces associated greenhouse gas emissions, but it requires sophisticated models and monitoring systems. Data-driven models have proven their value here, as they can be used for monitoring, operational state estimation, and prediction. However, they are also sensitive to (1) the training approach, (2) the selected feature set, (3) and the algorithm used. Using operational data, we comprehensively investigate these model parameters for performance prediction in a thermal plant for process steam generation. Specifically, four regression algorithms are evaluated for the prediction of the highly fluctuating live steam flow with two training approaches and three feature subsets of the raw dataset. Furthermore, manual and automatic clustering methods are used to identify different states of operation regarding the fuel amounts used in the combustion chamber. Our results show that the live steam flow is predicted with excellent accuracy for a testing period of one month (R² =0.994 and NMAE=0.55%) when using a dynamic training approach and a comprehensive feature set comprised of 48 features representing the combustion process. It is also seen that the statically trained model predicts various load changes with strong accuracy and that the accuracy of the dynamically trained model can be approached by incorporating the cluster information into the static model. These models reflect the plant's physical intricacies under varying loads, where deviations from the predicted live steam flow indicate unwanted long-term drifts. They can be directly implemented to help operators detect inefficiencies and optimize plant performance.
Alleviating the curse of dimensionality in minkowski sum approximations of storage flexibility
(2024)
Many real-world applications require the joint optimization of a large number of flexible devices over some time horizon. The flexibility of multiple batteries, thermostatically controlled loads, or electric vehicles, e.g., can be used to support grid operations and to reduce operation costs. Using piecewise constant power values, the flexibility of each device over d time periods can be described as a polytopic subset in power space. The aggregated flexibility is given by the Minkowski sum of these polytopes. As the computation of Minkowski sums is in general demanding, several approximations have been proposed in the literature. Yet, their application potential is often objective-dependent and limited by the curse of dimensionality. In this paper, we show that up to 2d vertices of each polytope can be computed efficiently and that the convex hull of their sums provides a computationally efficient inner approximation of the Minkowski sum. Via an extensive simulation study, we illustrate that our approach outperforms ten state-of-the-art inner approximations in terms of computational complexity and accuracy for different objectives. Moreover, we propose an efficient disaggregation method applicable to any vertex-based approximation. The proposed methods provide an efficient means to aggregate and to disaggregate typical battery storages in quarter-hourly periods over an entire day with reasonable accuracy for aggregated cost and for peak power optimization.
Domestic hot water heaters are considered to be easily integrated as flexible loads for demand response. While literature grows on reproducible simulation and lab tests, real-world implementation in field tests considering state estimation and demand prediction-based model predictive control approaches is rare. This work reports the findings of a field test with 16 autonomous smart domestic hot water heaters. The heaters were equipped with a retrofittable sensor/actuator setup and a real-time price-driven model predictive control unit, which covers state estimation, demand prediction, and optimization of switching times. With the introduction of generic performance indicators (specific costs and thermal efficiency), the results achieved in the field are compared by simulations to standard control modes (instantaneous heating, hysteresis, night-only switching). To evaluate how model predictive control performance depends on the user demand prediction and state estimation accuracy, simulations assuming perfect predictions and state estimations are conducted based on the data measured in the field. Results prove the feasible benefit of RTP-based model predictive control in the field compared to a hysteresis-based standard control regarding cost reduction and efficiency increase but show a strong dependency on the degree of utilization.
Vast amounts of oily wastewater are byproducts of the petrochemical and the shipping industry and to this day frequently discharged into water bodies either without or after insufficient treatment. To alleviate the resulting pollution, water treatment processes are in great demand. Bubble column humidifiers (BCHs) as part of humidification–dehumidification systems are predestined for such a task, since they are insensitive to different feed liquids, simple in design and have low maintenance requirements. While humidification in a bubble column has been investigated plentiful for desalination, a systematic investigation of oily wastewater treatment is missing in literature. We filled this gap by analyzing the treatment of an oil–water emulsion experimentally to derive recommendations for future design and operation of BCHs. Our humidity measurements indicate that the air stream is always saturated after humidification for a liquid height of only 10 cm. A residual water mass fraction of 3.5 wt% is measured after a batch run of six hours. Furthermore, continuous measurements show that an increase in oil mass fraction leads to a decrease in system productivity especially for high oil mass fractions. This decrease is caused by the heterogeneity of the liquid temperature profile. A lower liquid height mitigates this heterogeneity, therefore decreasing the heat demand and improving the overall efficiency. The oil content of the produced condensate is below 15 ppm, allowing discharge into various water bodies. The results of our systematic investigation prove suitability and indicate a strong future potential for the use of BCHs in oily wastewater treatment.
Grey Box models provide an important approach for control analysis in the Heating, Ventilation and Air Conditioning (HVAC) sector. Grey Box models consist of physical models where parameters are estimated from data. Due to the vast amount of component models that can be found in literature, the question arises, which component models perform best on a given system or dataset? This question is investigated systematically using a test case system with real operational data. The test case system consists of a HVAC system containing an energy recovery unit (ER), a heating coil (HC) and a cooling coil (CC). For each component, several suitable model variants from the literature are adapted appropriately and implemented. Four model variants are implemented for the ER and five model variants each for the HC and CC. Further, three global optimization algorithms and four local optimization algorithms to solve the nonlinear least squares system identification are implemented, leading to a total of 700 combinations. The comparison of all variants shows that the global optimization algorithms do not provide significantly better solutions. Their runtimes are significantly higher. Analysis of the models shows a dependency of the model accuracy on the number of total parameters.
Power plant operators increasingly rely on predictive models to diagnose and monitor their systems. Data-driven prediction models are generally simple and can have high precision, making them superior to physics-based or knowledge-based models, especially for complex systems like thermal power plants. However, the accuracy of data-driven predictions depends on (1) the quality of the dataset, (2) a suitable selection of sensor signals, and (3) an appropriate selection of the training period. In some instances, redundancies and irrelevant sensors may even reduce the prediction quality.
We investigate ideal configurations for predicting the live steam production of a solid fuel-burning thermal power plant in the pulp and paper industry for different modes of operation. To this end, we benchmark four machine learning algorithms on two feature sets and two training sets to predict steam production. Our results indicate that with the best possible configuration, a coefficient of determination of R^2 = 0.95 and a mean absolute error of MAE=1.2 t/h with an average steam production of 35.1 t/h is reached. On average, using a dynamic dataset for training lowers MAE by 32% compared to a static dataset for training. A feature set based on expert knowledge lowers MAE by an additional 32 %, compared to a simple feature set representing the fuel inputs. We can conclude that based on the static training set and the basic feature set, machine learning algorithms can identify long-term changes. When using a dynamic dataset the performance parameters of thermal power plants are predicted with high accuracy and allow for detecting short-term problems.
Hot water heat pumps are well suited for demand side management, as the heat pump market faced a rapid growth in the past years with the trend to decentralized domestic hot water use. Sales were accelerated through wants and needs of energy conservation, energy efficiency, and less restrictive rules regarding Legionella. While in literature the model predictive control potential for heat pumps is commonly shown in simulations, the share of experimental studies is relatively low. To this day, experimental studies considering solely domestic hot water use are not available. In this paper, the realistic achievable model predictive control potential of a hot water heat pump is compared to the standard hysteresis control, to provide an experimental proof. We show for the first time, how state-of-the-art approaches (model predictive control, system identification, live state estimation, and demand prediction) can be transferred from electric hot water heaters to hot water heat pumps, combined, and implemented into a real-world hot water heat pump setup. The optimization approach, embedded in a realistic experimental setting, leads to a decrease in electric energy demand and cost per unit electricity by approximately 12% and 14%, respectively. Further, an increase in efficiency by approximately 13% has been achieved.
Demand-side management approaches that exploit the temporal flexibility of electric vehicles have attracted much attention in recent years due to the increasing market penetration. These demand-side management measures contribute to alleviating the burden on the power system, especially in distribution grids where bottlenecks are more prevalent. Electric vehicles can be defined as an attractive asset for distribution system operators, which have the potential to provide grid services if properly managed. In this thesis, first, a systematic investigation is conducted for two typically employed demand-side management methods reported in the literature: A voltage droop control-based approach and a market-driven approach. Then a control scheme of decentralized autonomous demand side management for electric vehicle charging scheduling which relies on a unidirectionally communicated grid-induced signal is proposed. In all the topics considered, the implications on the distribution grid operation are evaluated using a set of time series load flow simulations performed for representative Austrian distribution grids. Droop control mechanisms are discussed for electric vehicle charging control which requires no communication. The method provides an economically viable solution at all penetrations if electric vehicles charge at low nominal power rates. However, with the current market trends in residential charging equipment especially in the European context where most of the charging equipment is designed for 11 kW charging, the technical feasibility of the method, in the long run, is debatable. As electricity demand strongly correlates with energy prices, a linear optimization algorithm is proposed to minimize charging costs, which uses next-day market prices as the grid-induced incentive function under the assumption of perfect user predictions. The constraints on the state of charge guarantee the energy required for driving is delivered without failure. An average energy cost saving of 30% is realized at all penetrations. Nevertheless, the avalanche effect due to simultaneous charging during low price periods introduces new power peaks exceeding those of uncontrolled charging. This obstructs the grid-friendly integration of electric vehicles.