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Stress testing is part of today’s bank risk management and often required by the governing regulatory authority. Performing such a stress test with stress scenarios derived from a distribution, instead of pre-defined expert scenarios, results in a systematic approach in which new severe scenarios can be discovered. The required scenario distribution is obtained from historical time series via a Vector-Autoregressive time series model. The worst-case search, i.e. finding the scenario yielding the most severe situation for the bank, can be stated as an optimization problem. The problem itself is a constrained optimization problem in a high-dimensional search space. The constraints are the box constraints on the scenario variables and the plausibility of a scenario.
The latter is expressed by an elliptic constraint. As the evaluation of the stress scenarios is performed with a simulation tool, the optimization problem can be seen as black-box optimization problem. Evolution Strategy, a well-known optimizer for black-box problems, is applied here. The necessary adaptations to the algorithm are explained and a set of different algorithm design choices are investigated. It is shown that a simple box constraint handling method, i.e. setting variables which violate a box constraint to the respective boundary of the feasible domain, in combination with a repair of implausible scenarios provides good results.
Varying mindsets in Design Thinking. Why they change during the process and how to nudge them
(2019)
A trend from centralized to decentralized production is emerging in the manufacturing domain leading to new and innovative approaches for long-established production methods. A technology supporting this trend is Cloud Manufacturing, which adapts technologies and concepts known from cloud computing to the manufacturing domain. A core aspect of Cloud Manufacturing is representing knowledge about manufacturing, e.g., machine capabilities, in a suitable form. This knowledge representation should be flexible and adaptable so that it fits across various manufacturing domains, but, at the same time, should also be specific and exhaustive. We identify three core capabilities that such a platform has to support, i.e., the product, the process and the production.We propose representing this knowledge in semantically specified knowledge graphs, essentially creating three through features interconnected ontologies each representing a facet of manufacturing. Finally, we present an exemplary implementation of a Cloud Manufacturing platform using this representation and its advantages.
During two studies the influence of technologies on sleep were analyzed. The first one is about the effect of light on the circadian rhythm and as a consequence on sleep quality of persons in a vegetative state. The second one, which is still running, surveys the influence of several technologies on the sleep of elderly people living in a nursing home.
Grey Box models provide an important approach for control analysis in the Heating, Ventilation and Air Conditioning (HVAC) sector. Grey Box models consist of physical models where parameters are estimated from data. Due to the vast amount of component models that can be found in literature, the question arises, which component models perform best on a given system or dataset? This question is investigated systematically using a test case system with real operational data. The test case system consists of a HVAC system containing an energy recovery unit (ER), a heating coil (HC) and a cooling coil (CC). For each component, several suitable model variants from the literature are adapted appropriately and implemented. Four model variants are implemented for the ER and five model variants each for the HC and CC. Further, three global optimization algorithms and four local optimization algorithms to solve the nonlinear least squares system identification are implemented, leading to a total of 700 combinations. The comparison of all variants shows that the global optimization algorithms do not provide significantly better solutions. Their runtimes are significantly higher. Analysis of the models shows a dependency of the model accuracy on the number of total parameters.
Industrial demand side management has shown significant potential to increase the efficiency of industrial energy systems via flexibility management by model-driven optimization methods. We propose a grey-box model of an industrial food processing plant. The model relies on physical and process knowledge and mass and energy balances. The model parameters are estimated using a predictive error method. Optimization methods are applied to separately reduce the total energy consumption, total energy costs and the peak electricity demand of the plant. A viable potential for demand side management in the plant is identified by increasing the energy efficiency, shifting cooling power to low price periods or by peak load reduction.
The utilization of lasers in dentistry expands greatly in recent years. For instance, fs-lasers are effective for both drilling and caries prevention, while cw-lasers are useful for adhesive hardening. A cutting-edge application of lasers in dentistry is the debonding of veneers. While there are pre-existing tools for this purpose, there is still potential for improvement. Initial efforts to investigate laser assisted debonding mechanisms with measurements of the optical and mechanical properties of teeth and prosthetic ceramics are presented. Preliminary tests conducted with a laser system used for debonding that is commercially available showed differences in the output power set at the systems console to that at specified distances from the handpiece. Furthermore, the optical properties of the samples (human teeth and ceramics) were characterised. The optical properties of the ceramics should closely resemble those of teeth in terms of look and feel, but they also influence the laser assisted debonding technique and thus must be taken into account. In addition first attempts were performed to investigate the mechanical properties of the samples by means of pump-probe-elastography under a microscope. By analyzing the sample surface up to 20 ns after a fs-laser pulse impact, pressure and shock waves could be detected, which can be utilized to determine the elastic constants of specific materials. Together such investigations are needed to shape the basis for a purely optical approach of debonding of veneers utilizing acoustic waves.