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Power plant operators increasingly rely on predictive models to diagnose and monitor their systems. Data-driven prediction models are generally simple and can have high precision, making them superior to physics-based or knowledge-based models, especially for complex systems like thermal power plants. However, the accuracy of data-driven predictions depends on (1) the quality of the dataset, (2) a suitable selection of sensor signals, and (3) an appropriate selection of the training period. In some instances, redundancies and irrelevant sensors may even reduce the prediction quality.
We investigate ideal configurations for predicting the live steam production of a solid fuel-burning thermal power plant in the pulp and paper industry for different modes of operation. To this end, we benchmark four machine learning algorithms on two feature sets and two training sets to predict steam production. Our results indicate that with the best possible configuration, a coefficient of determination of R^2 = 0.95 and a mean absolute error of MAE=1.2 t/h with an average steam production of 35.1 t/h is reached. On average, using a dynamic dataset for training lowers MAE by 32% compared to a static dataset for training. A feature set based on expert knowledge lowers MAE by an additional 32 %, compared to a simple feature set representing the fuel inputs. We can conclude that based on the static training set and the basic feature set, machine learning algorithms can identify long-term changes. When using a dynamic dataset the performance parameters of thermal power plants are predicted with high accuracy and allow for detecting short-term problems.
Flexibility estimation is the first step necessary to incorporate building energy systems into demand side management programs. We extend a known method for temporal flexibility estimation from literature to a real-world residential heat pump system, solely based on historical cloud data. The method proposed relies on robust simplifications and estimates employing process knowledge, energy balances and manufacturer's information. Resulting forced and delayed temporal flexibility, covering both domestic hot water and space heating demands as constraints, allows to derive a flexibility range for the heat pump system. The resulting temporal flexibility lay within the range of 24 minutes and 6 hours for forced and delayed flexibility, respectively. This range provides new insights into the system's behaviour and is the basis for estimating power and energy flexibility - the first step necessary to incorporate building energy systems into demand side management programs.
Active demand side management with domestic hot water heaters using binary integer programming
(2013)
Traditional power grids are mainly based on centralized power generation and subsequent distribution. The increasing penetration of distributed renewable energy sources and the growing number of electrical loads is creating difficulties in balancing supply and demand and threatens the secure and efficient operation of power grids. At the same time, households hold an increasing amount of flexibility, which can be exploited by demand-side management to decrease customer cost and support grid operation. Compared to the collection of individual flexibilities, aggregation reduces optimization complexity, protects households’ privacy, and lowers the communication effort. In mathematical terms, each flexibility is modeled by a set of power profiles, and the aggregated flexibility is modeled by the Minkowski sum of individual flexibilities. As the exact Minkowski sum calculation is generally computationally prohibitive, various approximations can be found in the literature. The main contribution of this paper is a comparative evaluation of several approximation algorithms in terms of novel quality criteria, computational complexity, and communication effort using realistic data. Furthermore, we investigate the dependence of selected comparison criteria on the time horizon length and on the number of households. Our results indicate that none of the algorithms perform satisfactorily in all categories. Hence, we provide guidelines on the application-dependent algorithm choice. Moreover, we demonstrate a major drawback of some inner approximations, namely that they may lead to situations in which not using the flexibility is impossible, which may be suboptimal in certain situations.
Alleviating the curse of dimensionality in minkowski sum approximations of storage flexibility
(2023)
Many real-world applications require the joint optimization of a large number of flexible devices over some time horizon. The flexibility of multiple batteries, thermostatically controlled loads, or electric vehicles, e.g., can be used to support grid operations and to reduce operation costs. Using piecewise constant power values, the flexibility of each device over d time periods can be described as a polytopic subset in power space. The aggregated flexibility is given by the Minkowski sum of these polytopes. As the computation of Minkowski sums is in general demanding, several approximations have been proposed in the literature. Yet, their application potential is often objective-dependent and limited by the curse of dimensionality. In this paper, we show that up to 2d vertices of each polytope can be computed efficiently and that the convex hull of their sums provides a computationally efficient inner approximation of the Minkowski sum. Via an extensive simulation study, we illustrate that our approach outperforms ten state-of-the-art inner approximations in terms of computational complexity and accuracy for different objectives. Moreover, we propose an efficient disaggregation method applicable to any vertex-based approximation. The proposed methods provide an efficient means to aggregate and to disaggregate typical battery storages in quarter-hourly periods over an entire day with reasonable accuracy for aggregated cost and for peak power optimization.