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For a given set of banks, how big can losses in bad economic or financial scenarios possibly get, and what are these bad scenarios? These are the two central questions of stress tests for banks and the banking system. Current stress tests select stress scenarios in a way which might leave aside many dangerous scenarios and thus create an illusion of safety; and which might consider highly implausible scenarios and thus trigger a false alarm. We show how to select scenarios systematically for a banking system in a context of multiple credit exposures. We demonstrate the application of our method in an example on the Spanish and Italian residential real estate exposures of European banks. Compared to the EBA 2016 stress test our method produces scenarios which are equally plausible as the EBA stress scenario but yield considerably worse system wide losses.
Post-operative isoflurane has been observed to be present in the end-tidal breath of patients who have undergone major surgery, for several weeks after the surgical procedures. A major new noncontrolled, non-randomized, and open-label approved study will recruit patients undergoing various surgeries under different inhalation anaesthetics, with two key objectives, namely to record the washout characteristics following surgery, and to investigate the influence of a patient’s health and the duration and type of surgery on elimination. In preparation for this breath study using proton transfer reaction time-of-flight mass spectrometry (PTR-TOF-MS), it is important to identify first the analytical product ions that need to be monitored and under what operating conditions. In this first paper of this new research programme, we present extensive PTR-TOF-MS studies of three major
anaesthetics used worldwide, desflurane (CF3CHFOCHF2), sevoflurane ((CF3)2CHOCH2F), and isoflurane (CF3CHClOCHF2) and a fourth one, which is used less extensively, enflurane (CHF2OCF2CHFCl), but is of interest because it is an isomer of isoflurane. Product ions are identified as a function of reduced electric field (E/N) over the range of approximately 80 Td to 210 Td, and the effects of operating the drift tube under ‘normal’ or ‘humid’ conditions on the intensities of the product ions are presented. To aid in the analyses, density functional theory (DFT) calculations of the proton affinities and the gas-phase basicities of the anaesthetics have been determined. Calculated energies for the ion-molecule reaction pathways leading to key product ions, identified as ideal for monitoring the inhalation anaesthetics in breath with a high sensitivity and selectivity, are also presented.
Real-time measurements of the differences in inhaled and exhaled, unlabeled and fully deuterated acetone concentration levels, at rest and during exercise, have been conducted using proton transfer reaction mass spectrometry. A novel approach to continuously differentiate between the inhaled and exhaled breath acetone concentration signals is used. This leads to unprecedented fine grained data of inhaled and exhaled concentrations. The experimental results obtained are compared with those predicted using a simple three compartment model that theoretically describes the influence of inhaled concentrations on exhaled breath concentrations for volatile organic compounds with high blood:air partition coefficients, and hence is appropriate for acetone. An agreement between the predicted and observed concentrations is obtained. Our results highlight that the influence of the upper airways cannot be neglected for volatiles with high blood:air partition coefficients, i.e. highly water soluble volatiles.