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Stress testing is part of today’s bank risk management and often required by the governing regulatory authority. Performing such a stress test with stress scenarios derived from a distribution, instead of pre-defined expert scenarios, results in a systematic approach in which new severe scenarios can be discovered. The required scenario distribution is obtained from historical time series via a Vector-Autoregressive time series model. The worst-case search, i.e. finding the scenario yielding the most severe situation for the bank, can be stated as an optimization problem. The problem itself is a constrained optimization problem in a high-dimensional search space. The constraints are the box constraints on the scenario variables and the plausibility of a scenario.
The latter is expressed by an elliptic constraint. As the evaluation of the stress scenarios is performed with a simulation tool, the optimization problem can be seen as black-box optimization problem. Evolution Strategy, a well-known optimizer for black-box problems, is applied here. The necessary adaptations to the algorithm are explained and a set of different algorithm design choices are investigated. It is shown that a simple box constraint handling method, i.e. setting variables which violate a box constraint to the respective boundary of the feasible domain, in combination with a repair of implausible scenarios provides good results.
In dieser Arbeit wird Supervised Learning verwendet, um die Zuverlässigkeit von Schweißverbindungen zu evaluieren.
Um die Schweißqualität zu bestimmen, wurden End of Life Tests durchgeführt. Für die statistische Auswertung und Vorhersage der zu erwartenden Lebensdauer, wurden die Daten basierend auf einer logarithmischen Normalverteilung und mit einer multivariablen linearen Regression modelliert. Um die signifikanten Einflussfaktoren zu identifizieren, wurde eine schrittweise Regression genutzt. Die Ergebnisse zeigen, dass das entwickelte Modell die Zuverlässigkeit und Lebensdauer der Schweißverbindung akkurat abbildet und präzise Vorhersagen liefern kann.