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Power plant operators increasingly rely on predictive models to diagnose and monitor their systems. Data-driven prediction models are generally simple and can have high precision, making them superior to physics-based or knowledge-based models, especially for complex systems like thermal power plants. However, the accuracy of data-driven predictions depends on (1) the quality of the dataset, (2) a suitable selection of sensor signals, and (3) an appropriate selection of the training period. In some instances, redundancies and irrelevant sensors may even reduce the prediction quality.
We investigate ideal configurations for predicting the live steam production of a solid fuel-burning thermal power plant in the pulp and paper industry for different modes of operation. To this end, we benchmark four machine learning algorithms on two feature sets and two training sets to predict steam production. Our results indicate that with the best possible configuration, a coefficient of determination of R^2 = 0.95 and a mean absolute error of MAE=1.2 t/h with an average steam production of 35.1 t/h is reached. On average, using a dynamic dataset for training lowers MAE by 32% compared to a static dataset for training. A feature set based on expert knowledge lowers MAE by an additional 32 %, compared to a simple feature set representing the fuel inputs. We can conclude that based on the static training set and the basic feature set, machine learning algorithms can identify long-term changes. When using a dynamic dataset the performance parameters of thermal power plants are predicted with high accuracy and allow for detecting short-term problems.
Flexibility estimation is the first step necessary to incorporate building energy systems into demand side management programs. We extend a known method for temporal flexibility estimation from literature to a real-world residential heat pump system, solely based on historical cloud data. The method proposed relies on robust simplifications and estimates employing process knowledge, energy balances and manufacturer's information. Resulting forced and delayed temporal flexibility, covering both domestic hot water and space heating demands as constraints, allows to derive a flexibility range for the heat pump system. The resulting temporal flexibility lay within the range of 24 minutes and 6 hours for forced and delayed flexibility, respectively. This range provides new insights into the system's behaviour and is the basis for estimating power and energy flexibility - the first step necessary to incorporate building energy systems into demand side management programs.
Industrial demand side management has shown significant potential to increase the efficiency of industrial energy systems via flexibility management by model-driven optimization methods. We propose a grey-box model of an industrial food processing plant. The model relies on physical and process knowledge and mass and energy balances. The model parameters are estimated using a predictive error method. Optimization methods are applied to separately reduce the total energy consumption, total energy costs and the peak electricity demand of the plant. A viable potential for demand side management in the plant is identified by increasing the energy efficiency, shifting cooling power to low price periods or by peak load reduction.