Forschungszentrum Energie
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- flexibility estimation (2)
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Activation of heat pump flexibilities is a viable solution to support balancing the grid via Demand Side Management measures and fulfill the need for flexibility options. Aggregators as interface between prosumers, distribution system operators and balance responsible parties face the challenge due to data privacy and technical restrictions to transform prosumer information into aggregated available flexibility to enable trading thereof. Thereby, literature lacks a generic, applicable and widely accepted flexibility estimation method for heat pumps,which incorporates reduced sensor and system information, system- and demand-dependent behaviour. In this paper, we adapt and extend a method from literature, by incorporating domain knowledge to overcome reduced sensor and system information. We apply data of five real-world heat pump systems, distinguish operation modes, estimate power and energy flexibility of each single heat pump system, proof transferability of the method, and aggregate the flexibilities available to showcase a small HP pool as a proof of concept.
Power plant operators increasingly rely on predictive models to diagnose and monitor their systems. Data-driven prediction models are generally simple and can have high precision, making them superior to physics-based or knowledge-based models, especially for complex systems like thermal power plants. However, the accuracy of data-driven predictions depends on (1) the quality of the dataset, (2) a suitable selection of sensor signals, and (3) an appropriate selection of the training period. In some instances, redundancies and irrelevant sensors may even reduce the prediction quality.
We investigate ideal configurations for predicting the live steam production of a solid fuel-burning thermal power plant in the pulp and paper industry for different modes of operation. To this end, we benchmark four machine learning algorithms on two feature sets and two training sets to predict steam production. Our results indicate that with the best possible configuration, a coefficient of determination of R^2 = 0.95 and a mean absolute error of MAE=1.2 t/h with an average steam production of 35.1 t/h is reached. On average, using a dynamic dataset for training lowers MAE by 32% compared to a static dataset for training. A feature set based on expert knowledge lowers MAE by an additional 32 %, compared to a simple feature set representing the fuel inputs. We can conclude that based on the static training set and the basic feature set, machine learning algorithms can identify long-term changes. When using a dynamic dataset the performance parameters of thermal power plants are predicted with high accuracy and allow for detecting short-term problems.
Hot water heat pumps are well suited for demand side management, as the heat pump market faced a rapid growth in the past years with the trend to decentralized domestic hot water use. Sales were accelerated through wants and needs of energy conservation, energy efficiency, and less restrictive rules regarding Legionella. While in literature the model predictive control potential for heat pumps is commonly shown in simulations, the share of experimental studies is relatively low. To this day, experimental studies considering solely domestic hot water use are not available. In this paper, the realistic achievable model predictive control potential of a hot water heat pump is compared to the standard hysteresis control, to provide an experimental proof. We show for the first time, how state-of-the-art approaches (model predictive control, system identification, live state estimation, and demand prediction) can be transferred from electric hot water heaters to hot water heat pumps, combined, and implemented into a real-world hot water heat pump setup. The optimization approach, embedded in a realistic experimental setting, leads to a decrease in electric energy demand and cost per unit electricity by approximately 12% and 14%, respectively. Further, an increase in efficiency by approximately 13% has been achieved.
Grey Box models provide an important approach for control analysis in the Heating, Ventilation and Air Conditioning (HVAC) sector. Grey Box models consist of physical models where parameters are estimated from data. Due to the vast amount of component models that can be found in literature, the question arises, which component models perform best on a given system or dataset? This question is investigated systematically using a test case system with real operational data. The test case system consists of a HVAC system containing an energy recovery unit (ER), a heating coil (HC) and a cooling coil (CC). For each component, several suitable model variants from the literature are adapted appropriately and implemented. Four model variants are implemented for the ER and five model variants each for the HC and CC. Further, three global optimization algorithms and four local optimization algorithms to solve the nonlinear least squares system identification are implemented, leading to a total of 700 combinations. The comparison of all variants shows that the global optimization algorithms do not provide significantly better solutions. Their runtimes are significantly higher. Analysis of the models shows a dependency of the model accuracy on the number of total parameters.
Flexibility estimation is the first step necessary to incorporate building energy systems into demand side management programs. We extend a known method for temporal flexibility estimation from literature to a real-world residential heat pump system, solely based on historical cloud data. The method proposed relies on robust simplifications and estimates employing process knowledge, energy balances and manufacturer's information. Resulting forced and delayed temporal flexibility, covering both domestic hot water and space heating demands as constraints, allows to derive a flexibility range for the heat pump system. The resulting temporal flexibility lay within the range of 24 minutes and 6 hours for forced and delayed flexibility, respectively. This range provides new insights into the system's behaviour and is the basis for estimating power and energy flexibility - the first step necessary to incorporate building energy systems into demand side management programs.
Industrial demand side management has shown significant potential to increase the efficiency of industrial energy systems via flexibility management by model-driven optimization methods. We propose a grey-box model of an industrial food processing plant. The model relies on physical and process knowledge and mass and energy balances. The model parameters are estimated using a predictive error method. Optimization methods are applied to separately reduce the total energy consumption, total energy costs and the peak electricity demand of the plant. A viable potential for demand side management in the plant is identified by increasing the energy efficiency, shifting cooling power to low price periods or by peak load reduction.