Forschungszentrum Energie
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- Demand side management (2)
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Industrial demand side management has shown significant potential to increase the efficiency of industrial energy systems via flexibility management by model-driven optimization methods. We propose a grey-box model of an industrial food processing plant. The model relies on physical and process knowledge and mass and energy balances. The model parameters are estimated using a predictive error method. Optimization methods are applied to separately reduce the total energy consumption, total energy costs and the peak electricity demand of the plant. A viable potential for demand side management in the plant is identified by increasing the energy efficiency, shifting cooling power to low price periods or by peak load reduction.
Grey Box models provide an important approach for control analysis in the Heating, Ventilation and Air Conditioning (HVAC) sector. Grey Box models consist of physical models where parameters are estimated from data. Due to the vast amount of component models that can be found in literature, the question arises, which component models perform best on a given system or dataset? This question is investigated systematically using a test case system with real operational data. The test case system consists of a HVAC system containing an energy recovery unit (ER), a heating coil (HC) and a cooling coil (CC). For each component, several suitable model variants from the literature are adapted appropriately and implemented. Four model variants are implemented for the ER and five model variants each for the HC and CC. Further, three global optimization algorithms and four local optimization algorithms to solve the nonlinear least squares system identification are implemented, leading to a total of 700 combinations. The comparison of all variants shows that the global optimization algorithms do not provide significantly better solutions. Their runtimes are significantly higher. Analysis of the models shows a dependency of the model accuracy on the number of total parameters.
In contrast to fossil energy sources, the supply by renewable energy sources likewind and photovoltaics can not be controlled. Therefore, flexibilities on the demandside of the electric power grid, like electro-chemical energy storage systems, are usedincreasingly to match electric supply and demand at all times. To control those flex-ibilities, we consider two algorithms that both lead to linear programming problems.These are solved autonomously on the demand side, i.e., by household computers.In the classic approach, an energy price signal is sent by the electric utility to thehouseholds, which, in turn, optimize the cost of consumption within their constraints.Instead of an energy price signal, we claim that an appropriate power signal that istracked in L1-norm as close as possible by the household has favorable character-istics. We argue that an interior point of the household’s feasibility region is neveran optimal price-based point but can result in a L1-norm optimal point. Thus, pricesignals can not parametrize the complete feasibility region which may not lead to anoptimal allocation of consumption.We compare the price and power tracking algorithms over a year on the base ofone-day optimizations regarding different information settings and using a large dataset of daily household load profiles. The computational task constitutes an embarrassingly parallel problem. To this end, the performance of the two parallel computation frameworks DEF [1] and Ray [2] are investigated. The Ray framework is used to run the Python applications locally on several cores. With the DEF frameworkwe execute our Python routines parallelly in a cloud. All in all, the results providean understanding of when which computation framework and autonomous algorithmwill outperform the other.
Power plant operators increasingly rely on predictive models to diagnose and monitor their systems. Data-driven prediction models are generally simple and can have high precision, making them superior to physics-based or knowledge-based models, especially for complex systems like thermal power plants. However, the accuracy of data-driven predictions depends on (1) the quality of the dataset, (2) a suitable selection of sensor signals, and (3) an appropriate selection of the training period. In some instances, redundancies and irrelevant sensors may even reduce the prediction quality.
We investigate ideal configurations for predicting the live steam production of a solid fuel-burning thermal power plant in the pulp and paper industry for different modes of operation. To this end, we benchmark four machine learning algorithms on two feature sets and two training sets to predict steam production. Our results indicate that with the best possible configuration, a coefficient of determination of R^2 = 0.95 and a mean absolute error of MAE=1.2 t/h with an average steam production of 35.1 t/h is reached. On average, using a dynamic dataset for training lowers MAE by 32% compared to a static dataset for training. A feature set based on expert knowledge lowers MAE by an additional 32 %, compared to a simple feature set representing the fuel inputs. We can conclude that based on the static training set and the basic feature set, machine learning algorithms can identify long-term changes. When using a dynamic dataset the performance parameters of thermal power plants are predicted with high accuracy and allow for detecting short-term problems.